On Sat, 10 Sep 2005 18:57:53 -0700, "teshikaholmes"
Post by teshikaholmesI understand what you've said, Joe, but the media makes a huge deal out of
the victims of Katrina.
It was a big deal for those that had property totally
destroyed, but most of the coverage has been of an area that
was not totally destroyed by the storm.
Post by teshikaholmesThe governor of LA did her job to start martial law.
Of course, but martial law seems to have lost all meaning.
Post by teshikaholmesHowever, if these people did register with the city and state government
when would the notification of evacuation come to the people who did not
have transportation?
All of the evacuating should have been done by 12 hours
before landfall, I am not sure of the legality of an evacuation order
12 days after the danger has passed, and the water is receding.
In the last flood here, I moved out what I could, and
locked the house, and I would have been very upset if anybody
would have broken the door in (water did not get into the house).
Post by teshikaholmesDid the governments have the transportation lined up?
I don't know. It appears that very little if anything
was done, apparently they were unaware of a study done of the
percentage of people who would evacuate even if they could.
Even with a good plan, there wasn't much time.
I found the following at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=80&tstamp=200508
Joe Fischer
Section II: PI Reports
(5). New Orleans Population Survey · Hurricane Evacuation and
Sheltering
Dr. Jeanne Hurlbert LSU Research Professor
Dept. of Sociology
Dr. John J. Beggs LSU Associate Professor
Dept. of Sociology
Status of Survey Work
The primary focus of this survey is to understand better how
individuals in the New Orleans area would
be affected by, and would respond to, a major hurricane. Our previous
work has studied how
individuals used their social and economic resources particularly
their social networks to prepare for
and respond to Hurricanes Andrew and Georges. That research has shown
us what kinds of networks
tend to be most useful in dealing with hurricanes, as well as what
types of individuals are most likely to
have those networks.
In the current survey, we seek to understand how residents of the New
Orleans area would prepare for
and respond to a major hurricane one as severe as Andrew in two ways.
First, we are assessing the
network structures and resources of these residents so that we can
understand better what kinds of
resources are available and gain some sense of the extent to which
individuals would use formal and
informal sources of help. Included in this component is a focus on
social and economic resources,
broadly construed, as this information helps us to understand the
resources of individuals in the
metropolitan area, as well as how they use those resources in
non-disaster situations. For example,
knowing whether individuals use their networks in non-disaster
situations may help us to predict
whether they would use those networks in a disaster scenario.
Second, we are asking residents about their past hurricane experience
and how they would respond if a
storm as bad as Andrew approached the New Orleans area. We include
questions on past hurricane
experiences; the availability of transportation; and how, under what
circumstances, and in what direction
they would evacuate if a hurricane approached the New Orleans area in
the future. These questions
included asking whether they knew someone to whom they could go and
whether they would go to a
motel/hotel, shelter, someones house, etc. if they evacuated.
However, as we began to fine-tune the survey, an opportunity arose to
work with civil engineers in this
project to include an expanded section on hurricane evacuation. This
section allows us to gain vital
information on how the direction and severity of an approaching
hurricane would affect the decision to
evacuate and the timing of the evacuation. With all of this
information, we will be able to understand
well the social and economic resources of New Orleans area residents
and have detailed information on
evacuation response. This will provide critical data for planning for
a future storm. Because the data
will be geocoded (using respondents address information), we will
know a great deal about the
respondents locations and the characteristics of the areas in which
they live. All of this will give us a
much better picture of who would evacuate, under what circumstances,
and in what direction if a
hurricane struck this vulnerable city.
Preliminary Results
We have completed the main portion of this telephone survey. The data
are cleaned and we are
beginning to analyze and geocode them. We presented preliminary
results at the annual advisory
meeting for this project. These analyses yield interesting and
important information about the likelihood
and correlates of evacuation. Among our measures of likely evacuation
behavior was one that asked
respondents what they would do if a storm as severe as Hurricane
Andrewa Category 4 storm
threatened New Orleans. Our analyses thus far focus on that measure of
probable evacuation behavior.
We focus these analyses further on the proportion of individuals who
would leave the New Orleans area,
and on its correlates. Overall, we find that 68.8% of respondents
would leave the area, 9.8% would
leave their homes but remain in the area, and 21.4% would remain in
their homes. That 21.4% of
respondents would remain in their homes is a startling and important
statistic, because it indicates
that nearly 1 in 4 residents would refuse to leave their homes.
Turning to the correlates of evacuation, we find that homeowners are
much more likely than renters to
report that they would leave the area (73.97% vs. 56.76%). Only 44.44%
of mobile-home dwellers
would leave the area. Approximately 71% of those residing in
single-family homes would leave the
area, 63.79% of those in multi-family residences would do so, 66.67%
of apartment dwellers would
leave, and 63.64% of others would leave the area. Only 19.84% of those
in single-family homes would
remain in their homes.
Of those who have insurance on their homes, 73.94% would leave the
area; nearly 86% of those who do
not have insurance would leave the area. The correlation between
hurricane experience and evacuation
behavior is interesting: Of those who have no experience with a storm,
about 75% would leave; of those
who have experienced something other than a big storm, 67% would
leave. About 66% of those who
have experienced a big storm would leave the area. Length of residence
has an interesting relationship
with evacuation behavior, as well. The data suggest that those who
have lived in New Orleans longer
are less likely to leave. Of those who have lived in the area less
than 10 years, 81% would leave the
area; 77% of those who have lived there 10-19 years, 68% of those who
have lived there 20-29 years,
64% of those who have lived there 30-39 years, and only 60% of those
who have lived in New Orleans
40 or more years would leave the area.
As one would expect, we find a strong relationship between the level
of perceived threat to ones family
and the probability of evacuation. Of those who view a large storm as
a serious threat to their lives,
82% would leave. Only 57% of those who cast it as somewhat of a
threat, 47% of those who say not
much of a threat, and 30% of those who say no threat would leave.
We see a similar pattern for
perceived threat of injury and property damage. Of those who live in a
flood-prone area, 72% would
evacuate, as opposed to 59% of those who do not. Among individuals who
report that they would
evacuate, but remain in the area, approximately 40% would stay in a
shelter (as opposed to 5% of those
who would leave the area). Of those who would leave the area, 42%
would go to a hotel/motel and 53%
would seek shelter with friends/relatives. Turning to the issue of
which direction they would travel if
they left the area, less than 2% would head toward Morgan City, only
about 4% would travel toward
Biloxi, and less than 9% would go toward McComb. Approximately 26%
would go toward Baton
Rouge, 14% would move in the direction of Hattiesburg, and 45% would
travel in some other
direction.
Interestingly, perceived neighborhood safety appears to be a correlate
of evacuation behavior. Of those
who perceive their neighborhoods to be very or fairly safe, 70%
would evacuate. Only 56% of
those who perceive their neighborhoods to be not very safe or not
safe at all would do so. Of those
who own cars, 74% would leave, as opposed to 50% of those who would
not. Although the relationship
is not monotonic, higher-income individuals are generally more likely
to say that they would evacuate
than those with lower incomes are. Correspondingly, only 55% of those
who receive public assistance,
but 70% of those who do not, would leave the area. Caucasians/whites
are more likely than African
Heritage/blacks (72% versus 65%) and men are more likely than women
(71% versus 67%) to leave the
area. Individuals who are in poor health are far less likely to
evacuate (43%) than those in other
categories (68% of those in -fair- health, 70% of those in -good-
health, and 73% of those in
-excellent- health). Of those who experience a great deal of
trouble getting around, only 50% would
evacuate, as opposed to 58% of those who have quite a bit of
difficulty doing so, 64% of those with
-some- difficulty, 69% of those with -a little- difficulty, and 72% of
those who experience no difficulty.
Those who work away from home are more likely to report that they
would leave than those who do not
(78% versus 67%).
These results provide some correlates of possible evacuation if a
major storm threatened New Orleans.
Our next step is to move beyond these zero-order associations to
conduct multivariate analyses to
understand how these various factors affect evacuation, net of one
another. From there, we will begin to
analyze the effects of other socioeconomic resources including
network resources on the likelihood
of evacuation. We will also begin to model neighborhood effects, using
multi-level modeling
techniques.
The second portion of the survey is underway with our supplemental
sample. Because the main
portion of the survey was collected via telephone (with the sample
constructed through random-digit
dialing), this sample excluded households that did not have
telephones. Those households are
disproportionately to contain poor, minority residents. These
individuals are also much more likely than
those living in households that have telephones to reside in
vulnerable housing. And, in some parts of
the city, the proportion of households that lacks telephones is high
as much as 25%. Using 2000
Census data (Summary File 3), we have constructed maps of the city
that identify areas in which the rate
of non-telephone households is high.
We are now sending field teams into those areas with cellular
telephones so that they can locate nontelephone
households, secure the cooperation of respondents, and the interview
can be conducted via
cell phone from LSU. This allows us to represent this poorer, more
transient, and probably more
vulnerable portion of the population.
Carryover of Unspent 2003 Funds
The principal investigator requests to carry over the remaining
balance of unused Year 2 funds to Year 3 of the project.