Cause of Hurricanes

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Answer the survey why you think we are having so many US Hurricanes
http://www.freeus.info/56744/57138.html

[Teshika Holmes]

I could tell you part of the reason. The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic
oceans are heating up from a source beneath the surface of the water other
than the sun. There is some volcanic activity in the ocean. As for the Gulf
of Mexico, they are drilling deeper and deeper into the crust, the drills
are heating up the water as they pump for oil in the Gulf.

[Joe Fischer]

On Wed, 28 Sep 2005 15:27:19 -0700, "Teshika Holmes"

Post by Teshika Holmes
I could tell you part of the reason. The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic
oceans are heating up from a source beneath the surface of the water other
than the sun. There is some volcanic activity in the ocean. As for the Gulf
of Mexico, they are drilling deeper and deeper into the crust, the drills
are heating up the water as they pump for oil in the Gulf.

Which makes me wonder what caused an old abandoned
gas well 300 feet from my house near Fort Knox start blowing off
sulphur fumes, and shooting up water from a puddle 3 feet in
the air. Hope it is not the beginning of a volcano. :-)

Is that "Keesler Air Force Base", it was "Kessler Army
Air Field" when I was there. :-)

Actually, a guy had a chart of hurricanes by year and
decade on TV, showing that they tun in cycles, but almost
every decade since 1900 has been about the same, just
that having two big ones in one month is unusual, and
the coast is (was) much more densely populated now.

Maybe they should give the swamps back to the
gators, and give NO back to the French. :-)


If the auto had changed over to all hybrids about
ten years ago, the drive from Houston to Dallas would
not have taken a tank of gas no matter how long it
took, except for air conditioning.
And the oil industry is lax in not building an
excess refining capacity, but maybe environment
groups are at least partly to blame.

Both Andrew and Katrina were big surprises,
blooming up fast and became very powerful.


What may confuse the popular understanding
of hurricanes is that air can be moist if the temperature
is high, and still be invisible to the eye.
I think this makes feeder bands, which really
do feed the moist air energy into the center, appear
to be moving outward, when they are moving inward,
but the part where the moist air becomes visible is
forming earlier.

Jeraldo actually asked a question that made
it sound like he thought 100 percent of the energy
comes from the water surface, when it is only about
half the energy comes from the water, the rest comes
in with the feeder bands.

It would be helpful to have more study of the
atmosphere over Africa where most of these atmospheric
lows originate, but only to understand them better,
there is no use trying to prevent them, the cyclones
are needed to transport heat away from the equator
to the upper atmosphere, and to transport water
from the ocean to the land areas, just not so violent,
and not all the water in one place.

Even with the satellite technology, the hurricane
hunters out of Keesler are still essential for warnings
and for predicting.

Joe Fischer

[teshikaholmes]

Thanks Joe about more insight on the atmospheric lows. The hurricanes do
move warm air from the equator, but how do we use our modern technology to
help get folks out of harm's way? I understand the importance of storms and
how the atmosphere gets unstable. In my opinion, the storm seasons are
getting worse. Who knows what next hurricane season will bring. Speaking of
hurricanes, we have one that is possibly heading our way. Tropical Storm
Otis is may give us the water we need, however, not tooo much. :)

Keesler Air Force base has been renamed after the army field shortly after
the Air Force formed and separated from the Army. :)
--
Teshika Holmes

Post by Joe Fischer
On Wed, 28 Sep 2005 15:27:19 -0700, "Teshika Holmes"

Post by Teshika Holmes
I could tell you part of the reason. The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic
oceans are heating up from a source beneath the surface of the water other
than the sun. There is some volcanic activity in the ocean. As for the Gulf
of Mexico, they are drilling deeper and deeper into the crust, the drills
are heating up the water as they pump for oil in the Gulf.

Which makes me wonder what caused an old abandoned
gas well 300 feet from my house near Fort Knox start blowing off
sulphur fumes, and shooting up water from a puddle 3 feet in
the air. Hope it is not the beginning of a volcano. :-)
Is that "Keesler Air Force Base", it was "Kessler Army
Air Field" when I was there. :-)
Actually, a guy had a chart of hurricanes by year and
decade on TV, showing that they tun in cycles, but almost
every decade since 1900 has been about the same, just
that having two big ones in one month is unusual, and
the coast is (was) much more densely populated now.
Maybe they should give the swamps back to the
gators, and give NO back to the French. :-)
If the auto had changed over to all hybrids about
ten years ago, the drive from Houston to Dallas would
not have taken a tank of gas no matter how long it
took, except for air conditioning.
And the oil industry is lax in not building an
excess refining capacity, but maybe environment
groups are at least partly to blame.
Both Andrew and Katrina were big surprises,
blooming up fast and became very powerful.
What may confuse the popular understanding
of hurricanes is that air can be moist if the temperature
is high, and still be invisible to the eye.
I think this makes feeder bands, which really
do feed the moist air energy into the center, appear
to be moving outward, when they are moving inward,
but the part where the moist air becomes visible is
forming earlier.
Jeraldo actually asked a question that made
it sound like he thought 100 percent of the energy
comes from the water surface, when it is only about
half the energy comes from the water, the rest comes
in with the feeder bands.
It would be helpful to have more study of the
atmosphere over Africa where most of these atmospheric
lows originate, but only to understand them better,
there is no use trying to prevent them, the cyclones
are needed to transport heat away from the equator
to the upper atmosphere, and to transport water
from the ocean to the land areas, just not so violent,
and not all the water in one place.
Even with the satellite technology, the hurricane
hunters out of Keesler are still essential for warnings
and for predicting.
Joe Fischer

[Joe Fischer]

On Mon, 3 Oct 2005 00:40:48 -0700, "teshikaholmes"

Post by teshikaholmes
Thanks Joe about more insight on the atmospheric lows. The hurricanes do
move warm air from the equator, but how do we use our modern technology to
help get folks out of harm's way?

The local people must do most of the thinking and planning,
and there needs to be a tiered management, with full authorty going
to responsible in each voting district, ward, county, or city.

Why the governor even had any say about evacuation
is beyond me, all the governor needs to do is declare an emergency
and marshal law, and turn it over to the local people.

Every downtown building made of steel over 3 stories
high is surely a safe place, hallways make up a lot of the floor
space in a building, and owners could be compensated after
the event.
The idea of moving people hundreds of miles is moronic,
when they could find safe haven in the downtown area.

Post by teshikaholmes
I understand the importance of storms and
how the atmosphere gets unstable. In my opinion, the storm seasons are
getting worse.

I don't think so, at least not worse than ever before, the
seasons are cylic, but the population densities are much greater,
causing much bigger problems.

I did a google for "hurricane 1946" and "hurricane 1947",
trying to find the hurricane I was in at Biloxi, it must have been
the 1947 Sept 11- one, it apparently passed offshoore of
Biloxi, and the storm surge cleared all structures south of the
highway. I didn't realize it went that far west, and that may
explain the length of time we had cat 1 and cat 2 winds,
it went almost parallel to the coast.

Post by teshikaholmes
Who knows what next hurricane season will bring. Speaking of
hurricanes, we have one that is possibly heading our way. Tropical Storm
Otis is may give us the water we need, however, not tooo much. :)

One weather man said "Otis is headed for the coast of
Arizona", then corrected himself, at a time like this it may be
better not to have a coast. :-) But Baja should have tamed it,
I don't know of the gulf of Baja is big enough to allow strengthening.

Post by teshikaholmes
Keesler Air Force base has been renamed after the army field shortly after
the Air Force formed and separated from the Army. :)

Yeah, I joined the Army and got discharged from the Air
Force. :-)

While I was there it was a mechanic school and most
of the flyable planes were B-25s used for pilot proficiency flying.

I was on flight pay for one month, I guess the firct
month it became Air Force they had written tests, and then
selected the aircraft crew structure from the results, possibly
weighted by rank a little.

My plane had a Tech Sgt crew chief that had been
crew chief all during the war, but the test results made a
Staff Sgt the crew chief, and me as assistant, and we were
the only ones on flight pay.

I didn't take the test the next month and they
shipped me to Randolph Field to work on AT-6s, no
flying pay there. :-)

Maybe if I would have stayed at Keesler,
I could have been on a hurricane hunter crew, NOT!


It is obvious the more dense populations near
the coasts will require a whole new look at evacuation.
People need to be pre-assigned a safe haven,
as local as possible depending on the elevation and
available buildings.

They don't need to have information about
the surge of each storm, just consider all storms
to have a possibility of a 3o foot surge.

And I think the I-45 event should point out
the desirability of hybrid cars, they should get better
mileage in bumper to bumper traffic than they do
at 50 MPH as long as radios, AC or heaters are not used.


It seems worse than moronic that people think
the federal government or FEMA can do anything
to help, those that wait for congress to act before
any action can be taken are sure to be unhappy.

In the last flood here, FEMA had strictly
a reimbursement function, and that is about all
they can do in a direct FEMA to individual family
interaction.

Different cities need various and different
plans tailored to what safe buildings are available,
and what local elevations are.

It seemed that both LA state and NO city
governments exhibited little concern about the
real dangers, and didn't seem to want to bother
with a plan that involved a chain of command
down to local communities and families.

Just saying "get out of town" is not enough.

Joe Fischer

[Teshika Holmes]

It seemed that both LA state and NO city
governments exhibited little concern about the
real dangers, and didn't seem to want to bother
with a plan that involved a chain of command
down to local communities and families.

Just saying "get out of town" is not enough.
Nope just saying get out of town is not enough. I am sorry, however, the
local NO government seemed to have a plan to help, then did not act. I am
hearing rumors now that they had buses and asked people to register but I
find to not be true. The people there either decided to stay there and "duke
it out" with the storm or they had no way or means of getting out.

Yep, after the Air Force started in 1947, the Army gave the base to the Air
Force and it was named Keesler AFB. I would not mind going back to Keesler
just to study weather as a civilian ONLY. :)

Now the mayor is getting ready to layoff a bunch of city workers. I think it
is getting ugly right about now down there. Then I am hearing rumors that
they are trying to recall the governor of LA. Is this true?
--
Teshika Holmes

Post by Joe Fischer
On Mon, 3 Oct 2005 00:40:48 -0700, "teshikaholmes"

Post by teshikaholmes
Thanks Joe about more insight on the atmospheric lows. The hurricanes do
move warm air from the equator, but how do we use our modern technology to
help get folks out of harm's way?

The local people must do most of the thinking and planning,
and there needs to be a tiered management, with full authorty going
to responsible in each voting district, ward, county, or city.
Why the governor even had any say about evacuation
is beyond me, all the governor needs to do is declare an emergency
and marshal law, and turn it over to the local people.
Every downtown building made of steel over 3 stories
high is surely a safe place, hallways make up a lot of the floor
space in a building, and owners could be compensated after
the event.
The idea of moving people hundreds of miles is moronic,
when they could find safe haven in the downtown area.

Post by teshikaholmes
I understand the importance of storms and
how the atmosphere gets unstable. In my opinion, the storm seasons are
getting worse.

I don't think so, at least not worse than ever before, the
seasons are cylic, but the population densities are much greater,
causing much bigger problems.
I did a google for "hurricane 1946" and "hurricane 1947",
trying to find the hurricane I was in at Biloxi, it must have been
the 1947 Sept 11- one, it apparently passed offshoore of
Biloxi, and the storm surge cleared all structures south of the
highway. I didn't realize it went that far west, and that may
explain the length of time we had cat 1 and cat 2 winds,
it went almost parallel to the coast.

Post by teshikaholmes
Who knows what next hurricane season will bring. Speaking of
hurricanes, we have one that is possibly heading our way. Tropical Storm
Otis is may give us the water we need, however, not tooo much. :)

One weather man said "Otis is headed for the coast of
Arizona", then corrected himself, at a time like this it may be
better not to have a coast. :-) But Baja should have tamed it,
I don't know of the gulf of Baja is big enough to allow strengthening.

Post by teshikaholmes
Keesler Air Force base has been renamed after the army field shortly after
the Air Force formed and separated from the Army. :)

Yeah, I joined the Army and got discharged from the Air
Force. :-)
While I was there it was a mechanic school and most
of the flyable planes were B-25s used for pilot proficiency flying.
I was on flight pay for one month, I guess the firct
month it became Air Force they had written tests, and then
selected the aircraft crew structure from the results, possibly
weighted by rank a little.
My plane had a Tech Sgt crew chief that had been
crew chief all during the war, but the test results made a
Staff Sgt the crew chief, and me as assistant, and we were
the only ones on flight pay.
I didn't take the test the next month and they
shipped me to Randolph Field to work on AT-6s, no
flying pay there. :-)
Maybe if I would have stayed at Keesler,
I could have been on a hurricane hunter crew, NOT!
It is obvious the more dense populations near
the coasts will require a whole new look at evacuation.
People need to be pre-assigned a safe haven,
as local as possible depending on the elevation and
available buildings.
They don't need to have information about
the surge of each storm, just consider all storms
to have a possibility of a 3o foot surge.
And I think the I-45 event should point out
the desirability of hybrid cars, they should get better
mileage in bumper to bumper traffic than they do
at 50 MPH as long as radios, AC or heaters are not used.
It seems worse than moronic that people think
the federal government or FEMA can do anything
to help, those that wait for congress to act before
any action can be taken are sure to be unhappy.
In the last flood here, FEMA had strictly
a reimbursement function, and that is about all
they can do in a direct FEMA to individual family
interaction.
Different cities need various and different
plans tailored to what safe buildings are available,
and what local elevations are.
It seemed that both LA state and NO city
governments exhibited little concern about the
real dangers, and didn't seem to want to bother
with a plan that involved a chain of command
down to local communities and families.
Just saying "get out of town" is not enough.
Joe Fischer

[Joe Fischer]

On Wed, 5 Oct 2005 18:35:37 -0700, "Teshika Holmes"

Post by Joe Fischer
It seemed that both LA state and NO city
governments exhibited little concern about the
real dangers, and didn't seem to want to bother
with a plan that involved a chain of command
down to local communities and families.
Just saying "get out of town" is not enough.
Nope just saying get out of town is not enough. I am sorry, however, the
local NO government seemed to have a plan to help, then did not act.

Both the state and the city seemed to think they had a
plan, but surely now realize it was not adequate.
Both Katrina and Rita were very unusual events, mostly
because this was the first time in a while that highly populated
were so affected by surge and levee breaks.

Post by Joe Fischer
I am
hearing rumors now that they had buses and asked people to register but I
find to not be true. The people there either decided to stay there and "duke
it out" with the storm or they had no way or means of getting out.

I think most that were there decided to stay, it follows
the mindset that "it won't happen here, this time".
The fact that so many went to the Superdome without
food or water suggests they thought it was going to just be
an overnight sleep over.
In any flood or storm, certain people will always stay,
for many different reasons.

Post by Joe Fischer
Yep, after the Air Force started in 1947, the Army gave the base to the Air
Force and it was named Keesler AFB. I would not mind going back to Keesler
just to study weather as a civilian ONLY. :)

I read the history of the base yesterday, the weather
school wasn't there for very long, then there was a offshore
rescue school (there was a PBY-5 at the end of the runway
in the bay when I was there, but by then it was not in
flying condition).
The Airplane and Mechanic school was big at the
time, the movie about Biloxi portrayed it as a basic training
base, but I didn't see any of that in 1946.
I did spend a few hours hanging around the base
weather office, they were drawing big weather maps by
hand, and putting the lines of equal pressure on them.
During the 1947 hurricane I walked to the hanger
where the weather office was, I had trouble keeping
from running or flying.
A C-54 was tied down there, but was bouncing
a couple of feet up and down.

Post by Joe Fischer
Now the mayor is getting ready to layoff a bunch of city workers.

That was distressing news, surely the first function
of FEMA after everybody is safe and fed is to keep the
local government as intact as possible, there is an awful
lot of work to do cleaning up, and even white collar
workers could be used for scheduling and overseeing
the work and handling the bookwork.

Post by Joe Fischer
I think it is getting ugly right about now down there.

I haven't been folowing it too close, there isn't
much on the news about it. One of the reasons
FEMA should help the local government stay intact
is to keep morale up, it seems all the mayor thinks
of is the non-existent tax based revenue to pay
city bills with.

Post by Joe Fischer
Then I am hearing rumors that
they are trying to recall the governor of LA. Is this true?

It won't happen, unless there is something of
real consequence that hasn't been told.
The government has put at least a thousand
people in shelters in Louisville, and is slowly moving
them into federal low rent projects, so chances are
many of them will not go back very soon.
I don't understand who is going to do the cleaning
up, if the federal government does it, they will probably
be paying contractors allong General Services Administration
guidelines, which will cost double what the local city
government could get it done for.

The news media isn't helping by talking about
toxic mold, as if the entire city were contaminated.
Wholesale bulldozing of homes should be
avoided, any person should have the option of
cleaning up a home and keeping it.
Water is destructive to frame buildings, but
a week or so under water is not as bad as having
a roof leak where there is a repeated wetting.

Wood will last quite a while under water,
and if it is dried out and cleaned, one flood is
usually not very destructive.
My house was totally under water in 1937,
and had a couple of feet in 1945 and 1964, but
the 1997 flood didn't get it.
It may help that it is mostly oak, but more
than 80 percent of the houses are still here.

FEMA has a bad policy of only paying
for up to a certain percentage to repair, if the
damage is estimated to be more than that
they require the house be demolished.
Some people here told them to keep
the money and the people cleaned up and
repaired the homes themselves.

I am more concerned about the effects
the two storms will have on the economy, the
price of natural gas is up over $14 per Million BTU,
it was around $10.
It almost has to keep pace with the price
of gasoline because some power plants that use
oil can switch to natural gas if the price makes it
worth while.

Now it is Tammy causing flooding, it is really
weird to see old women shopping walking in water
up to their ankles.

The study of weather is still not what it needs
to be, but it has gotten better the last few years,
mostly because of better and more satellites and
more computer power in small computers.

Where I live, a flood in winter can be bad,
there is only one road running through town, with
a steep hill at one end, and a small river bridge
at the other, and they close the road when watet
gets high so the can close gates in the flood wall
that protects Louisville, but not this town.
In an ice storm, the hill is closed too, so the
only way out is by foot.

But weather runs in cycles, and the bigger
the database gets the better it can be predicted.

I lived in Somerset County PA in 1977 and 1978,
big snow years, they had to load Air Force snow
blowers on C-5s in Alaska and bring them to
clear roads.
And this summer has been hot, but with few
storms. It has not been the hottest on record,
but it was hot too many days.
Records have only been kept a hundred years
or so, and "normal" weather has not yet established
what the 200 year high or low should be.
1996 here had the coldest day ever, and the
deepest snow, so that seems to contradict any
global warming ideas.

Joe Fischer